Hong Ma     马弘
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My Google Scholar Profile ​
​check my IDEAS page and SSRN page for recent working papers.

Editorial Services:
​Associate Editor,     Journal of Comparative Economics
Associate Editor,     China Economic Review
Associate Editor,   Review of International Economics
​Associate Editor,     China & World Economy

Working In Progress:

[New!] "Super Factory Comes to Town: Identifying the Agglomeration Spillovers from Foxconn Factory in Henan" with Jianpeng Deng, and Hongbing Wei, First draft: 2023

[New!] "Carbon Border Adjustment and Global Inequality: Incidence, Compensation, and Decarbonization" with Ruobing Qin, Yinong Tan, Nini Wang First draft: 2023; previously circulated under the title "Going Green with Industrialization: Assessing the Unequal Impact of Carbon Tariffs​"

[New!] "Weaponized Commodities: Geopolitics and the Costs of Supply Disruptions" with Zhengwen Liu, Zi Wang, and Chang Xie, 2025

[New!] "Priced Out: Housing Costs, Gendered Migration, and the Spatial Reallocation of Crime" with Yumin Hu, Qunfeng Wu, and Mingzhi Xu

[In progress] "Exporting Pain: Export Slowdown and Intimate Partner Violence" with Rufei Guo, Yu Pan, Mingzhi Xu, and Chaoqun Zhan

Submitted Working Papers:
[1] "Reshaping Factory Asia: How Did the US-China Trade War Affect the Asian-Pacific Supply Chain?​" with Jingxin Ning, and Yuan Xu, First draft: 2023; this draft: May 2025   R&R
[2] "How US Corporations Shape China's Tariffs: Evidence from the Trade War", with Lingsheng Meng, Ruobing Qin, and Yuan Xu. previously circulated under the title "Soybeans or Planes: Political Power of US Businesses and China's Trade Retaliation"
[3] "Geopolitics and Supply Chain Reconfiguration" with Jingxin Ning, Yumeng Wang, and Yuan Xu
[4] "How Do Aggregate Pollution Reduction Mandates Affect Firms’ Emissions? – Evidence from A Quasi-Natural Experiment in China", with Jiayu Fang, Rui Xie, and Yuan Xu,  R&R
[5] "Tariffs Tax the Poor More: Evidence from Household Consumption During the US-China Trade War” with Luca Macedoni, Jingxin Ning, and Mingzhi(Jimmy) Xu. First draft: ​2024
[6] "Conspicuous Inequality: Speculative Housing Booms and Property Crime in China" with Yu Pan, You Shan, Mingzhi Xu,  R&R


PUBLICATIONS:
[42] "Window-Dressing in Environmental Regulation: Short-Term Incentives and Temporary Abatement" with Zhengwen Liu, and Fangrui Zhang, previously circulated under the title  "A Race Against Time: Assessing Age-Based Promotion Incentives in China's Environmental Regulations"  conditionally accepted, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (JEEM)
[41]"Commodity Supply Disruptions under Geopolitical Risk: A General Equilibrium Assessment" with Zhengwen Liu, Zi Wang, and Chang Xie. 2026. Accepted, Review of International Economics
[40] "When Exports Decelerate: The Mental Health Consequences of Export Slowdown" with Chuan He, Yuting Li, and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu, 2026.  conditionally accepted, Journal of Comparative Economics
[39] “Trade and Selection with Heterogeneous Firms and Perfect Competition,” with Xue Bai, Arpita Chatterjee, Kala Krishna, see the 
NBER working paper No.30650. 2026, Review of International Economics
[38] "
Optimal Ownership and Firm Performance: An Analysis of China's FDI Liberalization"  with Peter Eppinger, CESifo Working paper No. 10551, previously circulated with the title: "Optimal Ownership and Firm Performance: Theory and Evidence from China's FDI Liberalization"  Review of Economics and Statistics, 2026 May
[37] “Cushioning the Shock: The Rise of Nonstandard Work Amid the US-China Trade War”  with Chuan He, He Li, and Mingzhi Xu, 2026 Economic Development and Cultural Change  
[36] "Keeping an Eye on the Villain: Assessing the Impact of Surveillance Cameras on Crime", with Jinmei Feng, Mingzhi Xu, and Wei You,  Journal of Development Economics, 2026 January
[35] 
“A Quantitative Analysis of the US-China Trade Tension”, with Jingxin Ning and Ruobing Qin, 2025  China & World Economy V.33(6): 173-213
[34] "The Employment Effects of VAT Rebate Efficiency: Evidence from SMEs in China", with Bing Lu, Jiashu Hu​, and ​Yuan Xu, Accepted by China Economic Review,2025 December V94 (102561)
[33]
 "Responding to COVID-19 through Cross-Border E-Commerce: Evidence from Millions of De Minimis Import Orders from China​" with Kai Liu, Shuzhong Ma, and Gangjian Pan, 2025,  Review of International Economics 2025; 33: 933
[32] 
"An inter-city input-output database distinguishing firm ownership in the Greater China area during 2002-2017" by Dingyi XU, Yafei Wang, Heran Zheng, Ming Ye, Meichen Zhang, Qi He, Kun Cai, Dabo Guan, Shantong Li, Hong Ma, Bo Meng, Zhi Wang, Yang Wang, Lixiao Xu, Xianchun Xu, Peihao Yang, and Qianhong Ouyang (Paper #SDATA-24-03687A), 2025 Scientific Data
[31] "The Criminogenic Consequence of Export Slowdown: Evidence from Millions of Court Judgment Documents in China"  with Yu Pan, and Mingzhi Xu, previously circulated with the title: "Work or Crook: the Socioconomic Consequence of the Export Slowdown in China" Featured in VoxDev the Economic Journal, 135 (October) 2422-2275, 2025
[30] "Tit-for-Tat in Antidumping: How Did China Fight its Antidumping Wars with its Trading Partners?" with Wonkyung Lee and Yuan Xu, Journal of Comparative Economics 53 (1), 165-181,2025.
[29] “The Price and Welfare Effects of Tariff Reduction on Consumer Goods: Evidence from China” (with Ruobing Qin, Xue Bai), Journal of WTO and China, V14(2), 2024
[28] "The return of protectionism: Prospects for Sino-US trade relations in the wake of the trade war", with Jingxin Ning, 2024 China Economic Quarterly International 4 (3), 182-211 
[27] "Trade Wars and Industrial Policy Competitions: Understanding the US-China Economic Conflicts", with Jiandong Ju, Zi Wang, and Xiaodong Zhu, 2024 Journal of Monetary Economics 141: 42-58. previously circulated with the title: ”Trade Wars and Industrial Policy along the Global Value Chains”
[26]"The ``Matthew Effect'' in Rebates: How Does VAT Rebates Allocation Affect Firm Export Performance", (with Bing Lu) 2023 Journal of Public Economics
[25] "Magnification of the "China Shock" Through the US Housing Market" with Rob Feenstra and Yuan Xu.  covered by WSJ. 2023 Review of International Economics  NBER working paper version.
[24] "Heterogeneous Impacts of the Section 301 Tariffs: Evidence from the Revision of Product Lists" (with Lingsheng Meng),  Canadian Journal of Economics. 2023 V56(1)
[23] "China's Skill-complementary Imports”, (with Hongbin Li, and Lei Li), China Economic Review 2022,, v.74, No.101809
[22] “Trade and Minimum Wages in General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence”, with Xue Bai, Arpita Chatterjee, and Kala Krishna, 2021, Journal of International Economics (133), No.103535
[21]  "An Eye for An Eye? The Trade and Price Effects of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Exports" with Jingxin Ning and Mingzhi Xu, China Economic Review (65), 101685. [The published version has some typesetting error, see paper for the complete working paper version with appendix]
[20] “Trade Policy Uncertainty and Firm Innovation: Firm level Evidence from China's WTO Accession” (with Leo Qing Liu), 2020, Journal of International Economics    Data for replication 
[19] "Export Tax Rebate and the Margins of Exports: Product Level Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment", (with Wonkyung Lee and Yuan Xu) 2020, International Tax and Public Finance
[18] “Input Trade Liberalization and Firm Markup Distribution: Evidence from China” (with Zhengwen Liu). 2021, Economic Inquiry
[17] “US Exports and Employment” (with Rob Feenstra and Yuan Xu), 2019, Journal of International Economics Vol120: 46-58.
covered in VOX,and WSJ
[16]  “How Political Incentives Affect Chinese OFDI: A U.N. Security Council Membership Perspective”. (with Yue Teng) World Economy 2018,41(12): 3416-3441
[15] “How You Export Matters: Choice of Export Modes and the Evolution of Productivity”, (with Xue Bai, and Kala Krishna), Journal of International Economics, vol. 104(1): 122-137, 2017
[14] "Recasting the Iron Rice Bowl: The Evolution of China's State Owned Enterprises" (with Daniel Berkowitz, and Shuichiro Nishioka).  Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017, 99(4): 735-747
[13] “Revisiting the Effective Rate of Protection in the Late Stages of Chinese Industrialization” (with David Jacks and Bo Chen),World Economy, 2017 40(2): 424-438.
[12]“How do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Chinese Exports: A Firm-Level Investigation” (with Hongbin Li, Yuan Xu), Journal of International Economics, 2015. V.97(1):148-161.
[11] “Gross Job Creation and Destruction in China ” (with Xue Qiao and Yuan Xu) Journal of Comparative Economics 43 (2015): 1085-1100
[10] “Domestic Value-Added in China’s Exports and Its Distribution by Firm Ownership” (with Zhi Wang and Kunfu Zhu), Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(2015): 3-18.
[9]  “Measuring China’s Trade Liberalization: A Generalized Measure of Trade Restrictiveness Index”, (with Bo Chen and Yuan Xu) Journal of Comparative Economics, 42(2014): 994-1006. Data on Trade Elasticities.
[8] “Trade Facilitation and the Extensive Margin of Exports”, (with Rob Feenstra),  Japanese Economic Review. Vol.65(2), June 2014.
[7] “Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP”,  (with Rob Feenstra, Peter Neary, and Prasada Rao), NBER Working Paper #17729;   Economic Journal, 123 (December): 1100-1129.
[6] “Contractual Versus Non-Contractual Trade: the Role of Institutions in China”,(with Rob Feenstra, Chang Hong, and Barbara Spencer), NBER Working Paper #17728;  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. V94: 281-294, October 2013.
[5] “Import Variety and Welfare Gain in China” (with Bo Chen), Review of International Economics, 2012, Vol.20(4)
[4]  “Spatial Spillover Effects and Regional Economic Growth in China” , 2012, (with Chong-En Bai, and Wenqing Pan),  China Economic Review, Vol.23(4):982-990
[3] “Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Loss in China’s Imports”, (with Bo Chen), Frontier of Economics in China, 2012 Vol.7(3)
[2] “The Effects of Domestic Climate Change Measures on International Competitiveness”,  (with Hiau-Looi Kee and Muthukumara Mani), World Economy, 2010 vol. 33(6): 820-829, (previously the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5309.)
[1] “Consistent Comparisons of Real Incomes across Time and Space”, (with Rob Feenstra and Prasada Rao), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2009 vol. 13s:169-193


Book Chapters:
[1] “Optimal Choice of Product Scope for Multiproduct Firms under Monopolistic Competition”,(with Rob Feenstra), in E. Helpman, D. Marin and T. Verdier, eds., The Organization of Firms in a Global Economy, Harvard University Press. 2008. (Previously the NBER Working Paper #13703.)
[2] Shunli Yao, Hong Ma, and Jiaosuo Pei “Import Uses and Domestic Value Added in Chinese Exports: What can we learn from Chinese micro data?” in “Measuring Globalization: Vol. 2, Factoryless Manufacturing, Global Supply Chains, and Trade in Intangibles and Data”, Susan N. Houseman and Michael Mandel, eds.  2015.  Kalamazoo, MI:  W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
[3] Hong Ma “Exporting Like China: China's Foreign Trade over 1978-2018”,(in Chinese) 张军、王永钦主编《改革开放四十年》第9章,格致出版社


Grants:
[1] National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC),  Grant No. 71673160,  “Trade Openness and Firm Innovation”.
​[2] National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC),  Grant No. 71203114,  “Estimating the Real Effects of Interventionist Policies in China: Structural and Reduced-Form Approaches”.
[3]  MINORU KOBAYASHI China Economic Research Fund
[4]  Tsinghua Research Grant, “The Impact of International Trade on China’s Labor Market”
 
​
Services:
Outside Expert/Reviewer for: Ministry of Commerce (商务部); Ministry of Education (教育部);Ministry of Science and Technology(科技部);  National Science Foundation of China(自然科学基金委);   Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong;  Stavanger University (Norway);  Chinese University of Hong Kong


DORMANT PAPERS:
 “Firm Sorting, Ownership and Product Scope: Evidence from Chinese Enterprises” , Nov. 2011
 “Product Rationalization and Trade Liberalization”, DEC, 2008


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